Allan Lichtman: The Presidential Predictor
Remember this past summer? We all spent it differently - some soaked up the sun, some stayed at home for safety, and some continued on with daily life. But there was one thing that we all had on our minds. Who was going to win the election?! Joe Biden focused on his plan to combat COVID-19 and systemic racism in the country, while Donald Trump focused on his economic accomplishments and the race for a COVID vaccine. Biden supporters were scared of the threat of another Trump term, while Trump supporters hoped their beloved President would last another four years. While we were all on the edge of our virtual seats, waiting to see what would happen, Allan Lichtman, a 73-year-old historian and professor at American University in Washington DC, had it all figured out. In fact, he had the past ten elections figured out before we did, including Trump’s historic triumph in 2016, when Trump sent Lichtman an autograph saying, “Professor - congrats. Good call.” So how does Lichtman do this?
Lichtman was born and raised in Brooklyn, New York, and graduated high school from Stuyvesant in New York City and college from Brandeis University in Massachusetts. He later received his Ph.D. from Harvard University in 1973. Lichtman was an excellent student and intellectual, graduating from Brandeis magna cum laude, from Harvard as a Graduate Prize fellow, having a 16-game winning streak on CBS’s game show Tic-Tac-Dough and being a champion at steeplechase — a sport Lichtman refers to as “a race designed for horses, but run by people.” Following this, Lichtman became a professor at American University in Washington D.C. where he has taught since 1973. However, teaching isn’t the only thing Lichtman has been doing in his life.
“He would have to predict the election based on who would win the electoral votes needed to win the presidency, not who would win the popular vote.”
Lichtman has been predicting elections. He’s predicted every one since 1984, which he predicted two years before it happened. Before Mondale even became the Democratic nominee! After that, he predicted wins for George H.W. Bush in 1988 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and again in 1996. In 2000, which was one of the craziest and most controversial elections in American history, Lichtman had a bit of a hiccup. He predicted Vice President Al Gore would win the presidency because, at the time, Lichtman was predicting who would win the popular vote because he thought the winner of the popular vote would win the presidency since the popular vote winner had won the election since 1888. In 2000 that changed when, after a Florida recount, the US Supreme Court ruled the election in Governor George W. Bush’s favor. That’s when Lichtman knew he had to change his system. He would have to predict the election based on who would win the electoral votes needed to win the presidency, not who would win the popular vote.
So how does he do it? How has this guy predicted every single election since 1984? Well, when he was younger, Lichtman met Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a Russian geophysicist and seismologist, a.k.a, an earthquake predictor. What do presidential elections and earthquakes have to do with each other, one might ask? Well, after breaking it down, they are not that different. Lichtman and Keilis-Borok looked at every election between 1860 and 1980 and found 13 keys, The Keys to the Presidency, as Lichtman titles his 1996 book. The system is based around the party in control; an earthquake is equivalent to when the party that controls the presidency loses power. For example, in 2016, the Democratic Party was in control after President Barack Obama’s second term, but with Donald Trump’s Republican win, the party in control lost power… an earthquake. Only two of the 13 keys have anything to do with the characteristics of the presidential nominee. If the key is “true,” that favors the party that is in control of the White House: in 2020’s case, it favors Trump. If there are six or more “falses,” a new party comes in power, and there is, as Lichtman describes it, “a political earthquake.” Using Lichtman’s algorithm for the 2020 election, the thirteen keys are:
Midterm Gains
The White House party gained House seats in the latest midterm elections.
FALSE. Democrats regained control of the House of Representatives.
Point: Biden
No Primary Contest
There is no primary challenger for the White House party.
TRUE. Trump faced no significant challenge in the primary as predicted.
Point: Trump
Incumbency
The President is seeking re-election.
TRUE. Donald Trump was the incumbent and sought a second term; that’s an automatic advantage for the incumbent.
Point: Trump
No Third Party
There is NO third party challenger like Ross Perot in 1992 and 1996.
TRUE. Besides the typical Libertarian and Green nominee and Kanye West’s longshot campaign, there was no major third party candidate.
Point: Trump
Strong Short-Term Economy
The short-term economy is strong.
FALSE. With the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock market hit disturbing lows.
Point: Biden
Strong Long-Term Economy
Long term economic growth during this presidential term has been as good as during the past two terms.
FALSE. Once again, the COVID-19 pandemic caused negative GDP growth.
Point: Biden
Major Policy Change
The White House has made major changes to national policy.
TRUE. Through tax cuts and executive orders, Trump changed the policies of Barack Obama.
Point: Trump
No Social Unrest
There is no social unrest during the term.
FALSE. With the rise of the #BlackLivesMatter movement, there was considerable social unrest and unhappiness with the policies of Donald Trump.
Point: Biden
No Scandal (Lichtman’s favorite)
The White House is untainted by scandal.
FALSE. Wow, could that be more false?! Trump was impeached by the House and early in his term, there was the Robert Mueller investigation to see whether there was collusion between Trump and Russia; and while Mueller did not find enough evidence, it still shook up Trump’s term, and there are plenty of other scandals attached to his presidency.
Point: Biden (for sure)
No Foreign/Military Failure
The White House has no major foreign or military failures abroad.
TRUE. While for some people, it may seem like Trump ruined everything, Lichtman has found no evidence of foreign or military failure.
Point: Trump
Foreign/Military Success
The White House has major success abroad.
FALSE. While there weren’t major failures, there also wasn’t major success. Not everything is black and white.
Point: Biden
Charismatic Incumbent
The incumbent party candidate (Trump) is charismatic.
FALSE. There is no doubt that Trump is quite a character and showman but based on Lichtman’s findings, it seems that it’s only with his base which is a “narrow slice of the American people.”
Point: Biden
Uncharismatic challenger
The challenging candidate (Biden) is NOT charismatic.
TRUE. While Trump’s “Sleepy Joe” name calling of Biden is hurtful and uncalled for, Joe Biden is not necessarily a very charismatic candidate or an inspiring public speaker.
Point: Trump
Well whaddya know, Biden wins with 7 “falses” to Trump’s 5 “trues.” As we saw on the morning of November 7, 2020, Biden defeated Trump and became the 46th President of the United States along with his #2, Kamala Harris who became the 49th Vice President, succeeding Mike Pence.
Lichtman describes himself as a Democrat and says the hardest part about making these predictions is keeping his personal politics out of it. He is a staunch critic of Trump, writing a book in 2017 called The Case for Impeachment. It is obvious that Lichtman is a political buff, and he took that a step further by seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate in the 2006 Maryland Senate election after Democratic Sen. Paul Sarbanes chose not to seek re-election while being the longest-serving Senator at the time. Lichtman came in sixth, losing to Rep. Ben Cardin, who still serves in the seat today. We could just listen to the polls and pundits, but Lichtman says that’s a waste of time. He’s certain we’ve been thinking about elections all wrong. In a New York Times video, he said: “The pollsters and pundits cover elections as though they were horse races but history tells us, voters are not fooled by the tricks of the campaign. Voters vote pragmatically according to how well the party holding the White House has governed the country … [Polls] are snapshots in time. None of this, in the end, has any impact whatsoever on the outcome of a presidential election.” So if you’re anxious about a presidential election, fret no longer, wait until the end of summer for Allan Lichtman’s sacred prediction, and you’ll know before anyone else.
Works Cited:
“He Predicted a Trump Win in 2016. What’s His Forecast For 2020? | NYT Opinion.” YouTube, uploaded by The New York Times, 5 Aug. 2020,